Yokohama FC 0–0 Mito Hollyhock: Result & Stats

Yokohama FC

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mito Hollyhock

8/10/2019

J2 League · Round 27Nippatsu Mitsuzawa Stadium (Yokohama)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Yokohama FC46%

×Draw26%

Mito Hollyhock28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yokohama FCExpected goals in this matchMito Hollyhock

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.11

Yokohama FC

1.48

Mito Hollyhock

1.11

Yokohama FC creates 33% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 168 away

1.68

creates per match

1.20

1.02

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Yokohama FC

1.68

Mito Hollyhock

1.20

allows per match

Yokohama FC

1.02

Mito Hollyhock

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yokohama FC+0.00on par

Mito Hollyhock+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yokohama FC ↓

Mito Hollyhock →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Yokohama FC or draw

72%

Yokohama FC or Mito Hollyhock

74%

Draw or Mito Hollyhock

54%

Winning margin

Yokohama FC wins by 2+

23%

Mito Hollyhock wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Yokohama FC 1+ goals

77%

Yokohama FC 2+ goals

43%

Yokohama FC 3+ goals

19%

Mito Hollyhock 1+ goals

67%

Mito Hollyhock 2+ goals

30%

Mito Hollyhock 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Yokohama FC (draw refunded)

62%

Mito Hollyhock (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yokohama FC at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.02 · 88 matches

Mito Hollyhock away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.29 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yokohama FC attack 1.68 + Mito Hollyhock defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.48

Mito Hollyhock attack 1.20 + Yokohama FC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Yokohama FC scores more

46%

level

26%

Mito Hollyhock scores more

28%

Yokohama FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Yokohama FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff