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Mito Hollyhock vs Yokohama FC — J2 League 2018

Mito Hollyhock
Mito Hollyhock
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Yokohama FC
Yokohama FC
7/2/2022J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 24K’s Denki Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Mito Hollyhock34%
×Draw27%
Yokohama FC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mito Hollyhock
1.19
Yokohama FC
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 167 home / 86 away

creates per match

Mito Hollyhock
1.37
Yokohama FC
1.41

allows per match

Mito Hollyhock
1.12
Yokohama FC
1.00

finishing

Mito Hollyhock+0.00on par
Yokohama FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mito Hollyhock ↓

Yokohama FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mito Hollyhock or draw
62%
Mito Hollyhock or Yokohama FC
73%
Draw or Yokohama FC
66%

Winning margin

Mito Hollyhock wins by 2+
14%
Yokohama FC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Mito Hollyhock 1+ goals
70%
Mito Hollyhock 2+ goals
33%
Mito Hollyhock 3+ goals
12%
Yokohama FC 1+ goals
72%
Yokohama FC 2+ goals
36%
Yokohama FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Mito Hollyhock (draw refunded)
47%
Yokohama FC (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mito Hollyhock at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.12 · 167 matches

Yokohama FC away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.00 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mito Hollyhock attack 1.37 + Yokohama FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Yokohama FC attack 1.41 + Mito Hollyhock defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Mito Hollyhock scores more
34%
level
27%
Yokohama FC scores more
38%

Yokohama FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Yokohama FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mito Hollyhock vs Yokohama FC

Yokohama FC beat Mito Hollyhock 2-1 in J2 League on July 2, 2022.

The match was played at K’s Denki Stadium in Mito.