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Yokohama FC vs Grulla Morioka — J2 League 2018

Yokohama FC
Yokohama FC
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Grulla Morioka
Grulla Morioka
7/30/2022J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 29NHK Spring Mitsuzawa Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Yokohama FC58%
×Draw23%
Grulla Morioka19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yokohama FC
1.84
Grulla Morioka
0.96

Yokohama FC creates 92% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 21 away

creates per match

Yokohama FC
1.68
Grulla Morioka
0.90

allows per match

Yokohama FC
1.02
Grulla Morioka
2.00

finishing

Yokohama FC+0.00on par
Grulla Morioka+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yokohama FC ↓

Grulla Morioka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Yokohama FC or draw
81%
Yokohama FC or Grulla Morioka
77%
Draw or Grulla Morioka
42%

Winning margin

Yokohama FC wins by 2+
33%
Grulla Morioka wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Yokohama FC 1+ goals
84%
Yokohama FC 2+ goals
55%
Yokohama FC 3+ goals
28%
Grulla Morioka 1+ goals
62%
Grulla Morioka 2+ goals
25%
Grulla Morioka 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Yokohama FC (draw refunded)
75%
Grulla Morioka (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yokohama FC at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.02 · 88 matches

Grulla Morioka away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.00 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yokohama FC attack 1.68 + Grulla Morioka defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.84

Grulla Morioka attack 0.90 + Yokohama FC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Yokohama FC scores more
58%
level
23%
Grulla Morioka scores more
19%

Yokohama FC at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Yokohama FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Yokohama FC 0–3 Grulla Morioka

Grulla Morioka beat Yokohama FC 3-0 in J2 League on July 30, 2022.

The match was played at NHK Spring Mitsuzawa Football Stadium in Yokohama.