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Grulla Morioka vs Yokohama FC — J2 League 2018

Grulla Morioka
Grulla Morioka
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Yokohama FC
Yokohama FC
5/25/2022J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 18Iwagin Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Grulla Morioka21%
×Draw25%
Yokohama FC55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grulla Morioka
0.88
Yokohama FC
1.61

Yokohama FC creates 83% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 86 away

creates per match

Grulla Morioka
0.76
Yokohama FC
1.41

allows per match

Grulla Morioka
1.81
Yokohama FC
1.00

finishing

Grulla Morioka+0.00on par
Yokohama FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grulla Morioka ↓

Yokohama FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Grulla Morioka or draw
45%
Grulla Morioka or Yokohama FC
75%
Draw or Yokohama FC
79%

Winning margin

Grulla Morioka wins by 2+
7%
Yokohama FC wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Grulla Morioka 1+ goals
59%
Grulla Morioka 2+ goals
22%
Grulla Morioka 3+ goals
6%
Yokohama FC 1+ goals
80%
Yokohama FC 2+ goals
48%
Yokohama FC 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Grulla Morioka (draw refunded)
27%
Yokohama FC (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grulla Morioka at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.81 · 21 matches

Yokohama FC away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.00 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grulla Morioka attack 0.76 + Yokohama FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Yokohama FC attack 1.41 + Grulla Morioka defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Grulla Morioka scores more
21%
level
25%
Yokohama FC scores more
55%

Yokohama FC at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Yokohama FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Grulla Morioka 1–3 Yokohama FC

Yokohama FC beat Grulla Morioka 3-1 in J2 League on May 25, 2022.

The match was played at Iwagin Stadium in Morioka.