Yokohama FC 2–0 FC Gifu: Result & Stats | J2 League

Yokohama FC

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FC Gifu

3/23/2019

J2 League · Round 5Nippatsu Mitsuzawa Stadium (Yokohama)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Yokohama FC56%

×Draw24%

FC Gifu20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yokohama FCExpected goals in this matchFC Gifu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.93

Yokohama FC

1.71

FC Gifu

0.93

Yokohama FC creates 84% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 43 away

1.68

creates per match

0.84

1.02

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Yokohama FC

1.68

FC Gifu

0.84

allows per match

Yokohama FC

1.02

FC Gifu

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yokohama FC+0.00on par

FC Gifu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yokohama FC ↓

FC Gifu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Yokohama FC or draw

80%

Yokohama FC or FC Gifu

76%

Draw or FC Gifu

44%

Winning margin

Yokohama FC wins by 2+

31%

FC Gifu wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Yokohama FC 1+ goals

82%

Yokohama FC 2+ goals

51%

Yokohama FC 3+ goals

24%

FC Gifu 1+ goals

61%

FC Gifu 2+ goals

24%

FC Gifu 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Yokohama FC (draw refunded)

73%

FC Gifu (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yokohama FC at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.02 · 88 matches

FC Gifu away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.74 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yokohama FC attack 1.68 + FC Gifu defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.71

FC Gifu attack 0.84 + Yokohama FC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Yokohama FC scores more

56%

level

24%

FC Gifu scores more

20%

Yokohama FC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Yokohama FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff