FC Gifu 1–1 Yokohama FC: Result & Stats | J2 League

FC Gifu

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Yokohama FC

9/29/2019

J2 League · Round 34Nagaragawa Stadium (Gifu)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

FC Gifu26%

×Draw26%

Yokohama FC47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC GifuExpected goals in this matchYokohama FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.46

FC Gifu

1.01

Yokohama FC

1.46

Yokohama FC creates 45% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 86 away

1.02

creates per match

1.41

1.52

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

FC Gifu

1.02

Yokohama FC

1.41

allows per match

FC Gifu

1.52

Yokohama FC

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Gifu+0.00on par

Yokohama FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Gifu ↓

Yokohama FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

FC Gifu or draw

53%

FC Gifu or Yokohama FC

74%

Draw or Yokohama FC

74%

Winning margin

FC Gifu wins by 2+

10%

Yokohama FC wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

FC Gifu 1+ goals

64%

FC Gifu 2+ goals

27%

FC Gifu 3+ goals

8%

Yokohama FC 1+ goals

77%

Yokohama FC 2+ goals

43%

Yokohama FC 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

FC Gifu (draw refunded)

36%

Yokohama FC (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Gifu at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

Yokohama FC away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.00 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Gifu attack 1.02 + Yokohama FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.01

Yokohama FC attack 1.41 + FC Gifu defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FC Gifu scores more

26%

level

26%

Yokohama FC scores more

47%

Yokohama FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Yokohama FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff