Yokohama FC 2–1 Ehime FC: Result & Stats

Yokohama FC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ehime FC

6/1/2024

J2 League · Round 18NHK Spring Mitsuzawa Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Yokohama FC53%

×Draw24%

Ehime FC23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yokohama FCExpected goals in this matchEhime FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.00

Yokohama FC

1.66

Ehime FC

1.00

Yokohama FC creates 66% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 123 away

1.68

creates per match

0.98

1.02

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Yokohama FC

1.68

Ehime FC

0.98

allows per match

Yokohama FC

1.02

Ehime FC

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yokohama FC+0.00on par

Ehime FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yokohama FC ↓

Ehime FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Yokohama FC or draw

77%

Yokohama FC or Ehime FC

76%

Draw or Ehime FC

47%

Winning margin

Yokohama FC wins by 2+

28%

Ehime FC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Yokohama FC 1+ goals

81%

Yokohama FC 2+ goals

49%

Yokohama FC 3+ goals

23%

Ehime FC 1+ goals

63%

Ehime FC 2+ goals

26%

Ehime FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Yokohama FC (draw refunded)

70%

Ehime FC (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yokohama FC at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.02 · 88 matches

Ehime FC away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.64 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yokohama FC attack 1.68 + Ehime FC defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.66

Ehime FC attack 0.98 + Yokohama FC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Yokohama FC scores more

53%

level

24%

Ehime FC scores more

23%

Yokohama FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Yokohama FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff