Ehime FC 1–2 Yokohama FC: Result & Stats

Ehime FC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Yokohama FC

4/3/2019

J2 League · Round 7Ningineer Stadium (Matsuyama)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Ehime FC25%

×Draw26%

Yokohama FC49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ehime FCExpected goals in this matchYokohama FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.46

Ehime FC

0.96

Yokohama FC

1.46

Yokohama FC creates 52% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 86 away

0.92

creates per match

1.41

1.52

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Ehime FC

0.92

Yokohama FC

1.41

allows per match

Ehime FC

1.52

Yokohama FC

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ehime FC+0.00on par

Yokohama FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ehime FC ↓

Yokohama FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ehime FC or draw

51%

Ehime FC or Yokohama FC

74%

Draw or Yokohama FC

75%

Winning margin

Ehime FC wins by 2+

9%

Yokohama FC wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Ehime FC 1+ goals

62%

Ehime FC 2+ goals

25%

Ehime FC 3+ goals

7%

Yokohama FC 1+ goals

77%

Yokohama FC 2+ goals

43%

Yokohama FC 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Ehime FC (draw refunded)

34%

Yokohama FC (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ehime FC at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.52 · 124 matches

Yokohama FC away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.00 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ehime FC attack 0.92 + Yokohama FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Yokohama FC attack 1.41 + Ehime FC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ehime FC scores more

25%

level

26%

Yokohama FC scores more

49%

Yokohama FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Yokohama FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff