Yokohama F. Marinos 5–0 Vegalta Sendai

Yokohama F. Marinos

FT

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Vegalta Sendai

J. Amano 90+4'

Léo Ceará 70', 62', 25'

Marcos Júnior 67'

8/21/2021

J1 League · Round 25NHK Spring Mitsuzawa Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Yokohama F. Marinos53%

×Draw23%

Vegalta Sendai23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yokohama F. MarinosExpected goals in this matchVegalta Sendai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.09

Yokohama F. Marinos

1.78

Vegalta Sendai

1.09

Yokohama F. Marinos creates 63% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 67 away

1.93

creates per match

1.07

1.11

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Yokohama F. Marinos

1.93

Vegalta Sendai

1.07

allows per match

Yokohama F. Marinos

1.11

Vegalta Sendai

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yokohama F. Marinos+0.00on par

Vegalta Sendai+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yokohama F. Marinos ↓

Vegalta Sendai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Yokohama F. Marinos or draw

77%

Yokohama F. Marinos or Vegalta Sendai

77%

Draw or Vegalta Sendai

47%

Winning margin

Yokohama F. Marinos wins by 2+

30%

Vegalta Sendai wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Yokohama F. Marinos 1+ goals

83%

Yokohama F. Marinos 2+ goals

53%

Yokohama F. Marinos 3+ goals

26%

Vegalta Sendai 1+ goals

66%

Vegalta Sendai 2+ goals

30%

Vegalta Sendai 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Yokohama F. Marinos (draw refunded)

70%

Vegalta Sendai (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yokohama F. Marinos at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.11 · 147 matches

Vegalta Sendai away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.63 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yokohama F. Marinos attack 1.93 + Vegalta Sendai defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.78

Vegalta Sendai attack 1.07 + Yokohama F. Marinos defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Yokohama F. Marinos scores more

53%

level

23%

Vegalta Sendai scores more

23%

Yokohama F. Marinos at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Yokohama F. Marinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Léo Ceará

Yokohama F. Marinos · F

10.0

Match Events

25'

Léo Ceará↳ R. Koike

54'

Shogo Nakahara

60'

K. Mizunuma← D. Maeda

61'

J. Amano← T. Ohgihara

62'

Léo Ceará↳ K. Mizunuma

66'

Y. Matsushita← S. Tomita

66'

R. Kida← S. Nakahara

67'

Felippe Cardoso← C. Togashi

67'

Marcos Júnior↳ Léo Ceará

70'

Léo Ceará↳ Marcos Júnior

71'

K. Matsubara← Élber

71'

K. Watanabe← Marcos Júnior

78'

T. Bunmathan← Léo Ceará

78'

S. Akasaki← T. Nishimura

78'

K. Hachisuka← K. Sekiguchi

90+4'

J. Amano↳ K. Matsubara

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

YokohamaVegalta

Overview

72%Possession28%

21Total Shots10

3Corners5

8Fouls8

Shots

21Total Shots10

11On Target3

6Off Target5

4Blocked2

14Inside Box5

7Outside Box5

Passing

72%Possession28%

795Total Passes294

703Accurate Passes214

88%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

8Fouls8

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides3