Yokohama F. Marinos vs Vegalta Sendai — J1 League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 67+ matches
Yokohama F. Marinos53%
Vegalta Sendai23%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Yokohama F. Marinos creates 63% more chances
Season form · 147 home / 67 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over55
- Under45
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Yokohama F. Marinos ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Yokohama F. Marinos at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.11 · 147 matches
Vegalta Sendai away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.63 · 67 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Yokohama F. Marinos attack 1.93 + Vegalta Sendai defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.78
Vegalta Sendai attack 1.07 + Yokohama F. Marinos defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.09
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 53%?"
Yokohama F. Marinos at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 53% does not mean "Yokohama F. Marinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
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Gamba Osaka
Kyoto SangaYokohama F. Marinos
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Cerezo Osaka
Nagoya Grampus
Kawasaki Frontale
Fagiano Okayama
Tokyo Verdy
Avispa Fukuoka
Shimizu S-pulse
V-varen Nagasaki
Yokohama FC
Mito Hollyhock
JEF United Chiba
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Albirex NiigataIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Yokohama F. Marinos host Vegalta Sendai on Wednesday, 23 September 2020 at 10:30. The match is part of the J1 League 2018/2019 season.
J1 League: Yokohama F. Marinos 3–1 Vegalta Sendai
Yokohama F. Marinos beat Vegalta Sendai 3-1 in J1 League on September 23, 2020.
Goals: Alexandre Guedes (10'), Marcos Junior (40'), Erik (70', 75').
Yokohama F. Marinos controlled possession (72%) and registered 24 shots to 10.
The match was played at Nissan Stadium in Yokohama.