Yokohama F. Marinos 4–0 Sydney FC: Result & Stats

Yokohama F. Marinos

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Sydney FC

2/19/2020

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 2Nissan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Yokohama F. Marinos59%

×Draw22%

Sydney FC19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yokohama F. MarinosExpected goals in this matchSydney FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.01

Yokohama F. Marinos

1.93

Sydney FC

1.01

Yokohama F. Marinos creates 91% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 12 away

2.44

creates per match

1.08

0.94

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Yokohama F. Marinos

2.44

Sydney FC

1.08

allows per match

Yokohama F. Marinos

0.94

Sydney FC

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yokohama F. Marinos+0.00on par

Sydney FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yokohama F. Marinos ↓

Sydney FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Yokohama F. Marinos or draw

81%

Yokohama F. Marinos or Sydney FC

78%

Draw or Sydney FC

41%

Winning margin

Yokohama F. Marinos wins by 2+

35%

Sydney FC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Yokohama F. Marinos 1+ goals

85%

Yokohama F. Marinos 2+ goals

57%

Yokohama F. Marinos 3+ goals

30%

Sydney FC 1+ goals

64%

Sydney FC 2+ goals

27%

Sydney FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Yokohama F. Marinos (draw refunded)

75%

Sydney FC (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yokohama F. Marinos at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

Sydney FC away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yokohama F. Marinos attack 2.44 + Sydney FC defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.93

Sydney FC attack 1.08 + Yokohama F. Marinos defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Yokohama F. Marinos scores more

59%

level

22%

Sydney FC scores more

19%

Yokohama F. Marinos at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Yokohama F. Marinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff