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Sydney FC vs Yokohama F. Marinos — AFC Champions League 2018

Sydney FC
Sydney FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Yokohama F. Marinos
Yokohama F. Marinos
12/4/2020AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 6Al Janoub Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sydney FC31%
×Draw24%
Yokohama F. Marinos45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sydney FC
1.31
Yokohama F. Marinos
1.63

Yokohama F. Marinos creates 24% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

creates per match

Sydney FC
1.15
Yokohama F. Marinos
1.63

allows per match

Sydney FC
1.62
Yokohama F. Marinos
1.47

finishing

Sydney FC+0.00on par
Yokohama F. Marinos+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney FC ↓

Yokohama F. Marinos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sydney FC or draw
55%
Sydney FC or Yokohama F. Marinos
76%
Draw or Yokohama F. Marinos
69%

Winning margin

Sydney FC wins by 2+
13%
Yokohama F. Marinos wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Sydney FC 1+ goals
73%
Sydney FC 2+ goals
38%
Sydney FC 3+ goals
14%
Yokohama F. Marinos 1+ goals
80%
Yokohama F. Marinos 2+ goals
48%
Yokohama F. Marinos 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Sydney FC (draw refunded)
41%
Yokohama F. Marinos (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney FC at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Yokohama F. Marinos away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney FC attack 1.15 + Yokohama F. Marinos defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.31

Yokohama F. Marinos attack 1.63 + Sydney FC defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sydney FC scores more
31%
level
24%
Yokohama F. Marinos scores more
45%

Yokohama F. Marinos at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Yokohama F. Marinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sydney FC vs Yokohama F. Marinos

Sydney FC and Yokohama F. Marinos drew 1-1 in AFC Champions League on December 4, 2020.

The match was played at Al Janoub Stadium in Al Wakrah.