Yokohama F. Marinos 4–0 Oita Trinita

Yokohama F. Marinos

FT

4 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Oita Trinita

10/10/2020

J1 League · Round 21Nippatsu Mitsuzawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Yokohama F. Marinos53%

×Draw24%

Oita Trinita23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yokohama F. MarinosExpected goals in this matchOita Trinita

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.06

Yokohama F. Marinos

1.72

Oita Trinita

1.06

Yokohama F. Marinos creates 62% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 53 away

1.95

creates per match

1.00

1.11

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Yokohama F. Marinos

1.95

Oita Trinita

1.00

allows per match

Yokohama F. Marinos

1.11

Oita Trinita

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yokohama F. Marinos+0.00on par

Oita Trinita+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yokohama F. Marinos ↓

Oita Trinita →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Yokohama F. Marinos or draw

77%

Yokohama F. Marinos or Oita Trinita

76%

Draw or Oita Trinita

47%

Winning margin

Yokohama F. Marinos wins by 2+

29%

Oita Trinita wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Yokohama F. Marinos 1+ goals

82%

Yokohama F. Marinos 2+ goals

51%

Yokohama F. Marinos 3+ goals

25%

Oita Trinita 1+ goals

65%

Oita Trinita 2+ goals

29%

Oita Trinita 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Yokohama F. Marinos (draw refunded)

69%

Oita Trinita (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yokohama F. Marinos at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.11 · 151 matches

Oita Trinita away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.49 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yokohama F. Marinos attack 1.95 + Oita Trinita defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.72

Oita Trinita attack 1.00 + Yokohama F. Marinos defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Yokohama F. Marinos scores more

53%

level

24%

Oita Trinita scores more

23%

Yokohama F. Marinos at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Yokohama F. Marinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff