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Oita Trinita vs Yokohama F. Marinos — J1 League 2018

Oita Trinita
Oita Trinita
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Yokohama F. Marinos
Yokohama F. Marinos
5/26/2021J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 16Showa Denko Dome Ōita

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Oita Trinita33%
×Draw26%
Yokohama F. Marinos40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oita Trinita
1.22
Yokohama F. Marinos
1.37

Yokohama F. Marinos creates 12% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 153 away

creates per match

Oita Trinita
0.92
Yokohama F. Marinos
1.68

allows per match

Oita Trinita
1.06
Yokohama F. Marinos
1.52

finishing

Oita Trinita+0.00on par
Yokohama F. Marinos+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oita Trinita ↓

Yokohama F. Marinos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Oita Trinita or draw
60%
Oita Trinita or Yokohama F. Marinos
74%
Draw or Yokohama F. Marinos
67%

Winning margin

Oita Trinita wins by 2+
14%
Yokohama F. Marinos wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Oita Trinita 1+ goals
70%
Oita Trinita 2+ goals
34%
Oita Trinita 3+ goals
12%
Yokohama F. Marinos 1+ goals
75%
Yokohama F. Marinos 2+ goals
40%
Yokohama F. Marinos 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Oita Trinita (draw refunded)
45%
Yokohama F. Marinos (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oita Trinita at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.06 · 53 matches

Yokohama F. Marinos away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.52 · 153 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oita Trinita attack 0.92 + Yokohama F. Marinos defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.22

Yokohama F. Marinos attack 1.68 + Oita Trinita defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Oita Trinita scores more
33%
level
26%
Yokohama F. Marinos scores more
40%

Yokohama F. Marinos at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Yokohama F. Marinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oita Trinita vs Yokohama F. Marinos

Yokohama F. Marinos beat Oita Trinita 1-0 in J1 League on May 26, 2021.

The match was played at Showa Denko Dome Ōita in Oita.