Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Yokohama F. Marinos vs Albirex Niigata — J1 League 2018

Yokohama F. Marinos
Yokohama F. Marinos
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Albirex Niigata
Albirex Niigata
10/18/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 34Nissan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Yokohama F. Marinos53%
×Draw24%
Albirex Niigata23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yokohama F. Marinos
1.71
Albirex Niigata
1.03

Yokohama F. Marinos creates 66% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 57 away

creates per match

Yokohama F. Marinos
1.95
Albirex Niigata
0.95

allows per match

Yokohama F. Marinos
1.11
Albirex Niigata
1.46

finishing

Yokohama F. Marinos+0.00on par
Albirex Niigata+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yokohama F. Marinos ↓

Albirex Niigata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Yokohama F. Marinos or draw
77%
Yokohama F. Marinos or Albirex Niigata
76%
Draw or Albirex Niigata
47%

Winning margin

Yokohama F. Marinos wins by 2+
29%
Albirex Niigata wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Yokohama F. Marinos 1+ goals
82%
Yokohama F. Marinos 2+ goals
51%
Yokohama F. Marinos 3+ goals
24%
Albirex Niigata 1+ goals
64%
Albirex Niigata 2+ goals
28%
Albirex Niigata 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Yokohama F. Marinos (draw refunded)
70%
Albirex Niigata (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yokohama F. Marinos at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.11 · 151 matches

Albirex Niigata away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.46 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yokohama F. Marinos attack 1.95 + Albirex Niigata defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.71

Albirex Niigata attack 0.95 + Yokohama F. Marinos defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Yokohama F. Marinos scores more
53%
level
24%
Albirex Niigata scores more
23%

Yokohama F. Marinos at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Yokohama F. Marinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yokohama F. Marinos vs Albirex Niigata

Yokohama F. Marinos and Albirex Niigata drew 0-0 in J1 League on October 18, 2024.

The match was played at Nissan Stadium in Yokohama.