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Albirex Niigata vs Yokohama F. Marinos — J1 League 2018

Albirex Niigata
Albirex Niigata
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Yokohama F. Marinos
Yokohama F. Marinos
5/15/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 14Denka Big Swan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Albirex Niigata32%
×Draw24%
Yokohama F. Marinos44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albirex Niigata
1.35
Yokohama F. Marinos
1.63

Yokohama F. Marinos creates 21% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 153 away

creates per match

Albirex Niigata
1.18
Yokohama F. Marinos
1.68

allows per match

Albirex Niigata
1.57
Yokohama F. Marinos
1.52

finishing

Albirex Niigata+0.00on par
Yokohama F. Marinos+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albirex Niigata ↓

Yokohama F. Marinos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Albirex Niigata or draw
56%
Albirex Niigata or Yokohama F. Marinos
76%
Draw or Yokohama F. Marinos
68%

Winning margin

Albirex Niigata wins by 2+
14%
Yokohama F. Marinos wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Albirex Niigata 1+ goals
74%
Albirex Niigata 2+ goals
39%
Albirex Niigata 3+ goals
15%
Yokohama F. Marinos 1+ goals
80%
Yokohama F. Marinos 2+ goals
48%
Yokohama F. Marinos 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Albirex Niigata (draw refunded)
42%
Yokohama F. Marinos (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albirex Niigata at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.57 · 56 matches

Yokohama F. Marinos away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.52 · 153 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albirex Niigata attack 1.18 + Yokohama F. Marinos defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.35

Yokohama F. Marinos attack 1.68 + Albirex Niigata defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Albirex Niigata scores more
32%
level
24%
Yokohama F. Marinos scores more
44%

Yokohama F. Marinos at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Yokohama F. Marinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: Albirex Niigata 3–1 Yokohama F. Marinos

Albirex Niigata beat Yokohama F. Marinos 3-1 in J1 League on May 15, 2024.

The match was played at Denka Big Swan Stadium in Niigata.