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Yobe Stars vs Plateau United — NPFL 2019

Yobe Stars
Yobe Stars
FT
0 – 0
Plateau United
Plateau United
2/13/2019NPFLNPFL · Round 9August 27 Stadium (Damaturu)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Yobe Stars45%
×Draw33%
Plateau United22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yobe Stars
1.06
Plateau United
0.65

Yobe Stars creates 63% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 127 away

creates per match

Yobe Stars
0.73
Plateau United
0.65

allows per match

Yobe Stars
0.64
Plateau United
1.39

finishing

Yobe Stars+0.00on par
Plateau United+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yobe Stars ↓

Plateau United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Yobe Stars or draw
78%
Yobe Stars or Plateau United
67%
Draw or Plateau United
55%

Winning margin

Yobe Stars wins by 2+
18%
Plateau United wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Yobe Stars 1+ goals
65%
Yobe Stars 2+ goals
29%
Yobe Stars 3+ goals
9%
Plateau United 1+ goals
48%
Plateau United 2+ goals
14%
Plateau United 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Yobe Stars (draw refunded)
67%
Plateau United (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yobe Stars at home — creates 0.73, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

Plateau United away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.39 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yobe Stars attack 0.73 + Plateau United defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.06

Plateau United attack 0.65 + Yobe Stars defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Yobe Stars scores more
45%
level
33%
Plateau United scores more
22%

Yobe Stars at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Yobe Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Yobe Stars 0–0 Plateau United

Yobe Stars and Plateau United drew 0-0 in NPFL on February 13, 2019.

The match was played at August 27 Stadium (Damaturu).