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Plateau United vs Yobe Stars — NPFL 2019

Plateau United
Plateau United
FT
2 – 0
Yobe Stars
Yobe Stars
5/20/2019NPFLNPFL · Round 21Jos International Stadium (Jos)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Plateau United70%
×Draw22%
Yobe Stars8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plateau United
1.66
Yobe Stars
0.36

Plateau United creates 361% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 11 away

creates per match

Plateau United
1.76
Yobe Stars
0.27

allows per match

Plateau United
0.45
Yobe Stars
1.55

finishing

Plateau United+0.00on par
Yobe Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

76%No
  • No76
  • Yes24

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plateau United ↓

Yobe Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–18%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–018%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Plateau United or draw
92%
Plateau United or Yobe Stars
78%
Draw or Yobe Stars
30%

Winning margin

Plateau United wins by 2+
41%
Yobe Stars wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Plateau United 1+ goals
81%
Plateau United 2+ goals
49%
Plateau United 3+ goals
23%
Yobe Stars 1+ goals
30%
Yobe Stars 2+ goals
5%
Yobe Stars 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Plateau United (draw refunded)
90%
Yobe Stars (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plateau United at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.45 · 128 matches

Yobe Stars away — creates 0.27, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plateau United attack 1.76 + Yobe Stars defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.66

Yobe Stars attack 0.27 + Plateau United defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Plateau United scores more
70%
level
22%
Yobe Stars scores more
8%

Plateau United at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Plateau United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Plateau United vs Yobe Stars

Plateau United beat Yobe Stars 2-0 in NPFL on May 20, 2019.

The match was played at Jos International Stadium (Jos).