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Yobe Stars vs Heartland — NPFL 2019

Yobe Stars
Yobe Stars
CANC
00:00
Heartland
Heartland
7/18/2018NPFLNPFL · Round 25August 27 Stadium (Damaturu)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Yobe Stars49%
×Draw32%
Heartland19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yobe Stars
1.13
Heartland
0.59

Yobe Stars creates 92% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 101 away

creates per match

Yobe Stars
0.73
Heartland
0.54

allows per match

Yobe Stars
0.64
Heartland
1.52

finishing

Yobe Stars+0.00on par
Heartland+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yobe Stars ↓

Heartland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–111%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Yobe Stars or draw
81%
Yobe Stars or Heartland
68%
Draw or Heartland
51%

Winning margin

Yobe Stars wins by 2+
21%
Heartland wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Yobe Stars 1+ goals
68%
Yobe Stars 2+ goals
31%
Yobe Stars 3+ goals
11%
Heartland 1+ goals
45%
Heartland 2+ goals
12%
Heartland 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Yobe Stars (draw refunded)
72%
Heartland (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yobe Stars at home — creates 0.73, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

Heartland away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.52 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yobe Stars attack 0.73 + Heartland defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.13

Heartland attack 0.54 + Yobe Stars defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Yobe Stars scores more
49%
level
32%
Heartland scores more
19%

Yobe Stars at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Yobe Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Yobe Stars face Heartland (NPFL)

NPFL returns with Yobe Stars hosting Heartland. Match starts July 18, 2018. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Yobe Stars host Heartland at August 27 Stadium (Damaturu).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.