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Heartland vs Yobe Stars — NPFL 2019

Heartland
Heartland
FT
2 – 0
Yobe Stars
Yobe Stars
5/5/2019NPFLNPFL · Round 17Okigwe Township Stadium (Okigwe)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Heartland59%
×Draw27%
Yobe Stars14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heartland
1.43
Yobe Stars
0.54

Heartland creates 165% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 12 away

creates per match

Heartland
1.36
Yobe Stars
0.33

allows per match

Heartland
0.74
Yobe Stars
1.50

finishing

Heartland+0.00on par
Yobe Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heartland ↓

Yobe Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Heartland or draw
86%
Heartland or Yobe Stars
73%
Draw or Yobe Stars
41%

Winning margin

Heartland wins by 2+
30%
Yobe Stars wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Heartland 1+ goals
76%
Heartland 2+ goals
42%
Heartland 3+ goals
17%
Yobe Stars 1+ goals
42%
Yobe Stars 2+ goals
10%
Yobe Stars 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Heartland (draw refunded)
81%
Yobe Stars (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heartland at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.74 · 100 matches

Yobe Stars away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heartland attack 1.36 + Yobe Stars defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.43

Yobe Stars attack 0.33 + Heartland defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Heartland scores more
59%
level
27%
Yobe Stars scores more
14%

Heartland at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Heartland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Heartland 2–0 Yobe Stars

Heartland beat Yobe Stars 2-0 in NPFL on May 5, 2019.

The match was played at Okigwe Township Stadium (Okigwe).