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Yobe Stars vs Gombe United — NPFL 2019

Yobe Stars
Yobe Stars
FT
1 – 0
Gombe United
Gombe United
1/30/2019NPFLNPFL · Round 1Bako Kontagora Stadium (Minna)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Yobe Stars57%
×Draw29%
Gombe United14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yobe Stars
1.31
Gombe United
0.50

Yobe Stars creates 162% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 59 away

creates per match

Yobe Stars
0.73
Gombe United
0.36

allows per match

Yobe Stars
0.64
Gombe United
1.90

finishing

Yobe Stars+0.00on par
Gombe United+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yobe Stars ↓

Gombe United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–111%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Yobe Stars or draw
86%
Yobe Stars or Gombe United
71%
Draw or Gombe United
43%

Winning margin

Yobe Stars wins by 2+
28%
Gombe United wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Yobe Stars 1+ goals
73%
Yobe Stars 2+ goals
38%
Yobe Stars 3+ goals
14%
Gombe United 1+ goals
39%
Gombe United 2+ goals
9%
Gombe United 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Yobe Stars (draw refunded)
80%
Gombe United (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yobe Stars at home — creates 0.73, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

Gombe United away — creates 0.36, concedes 1.90 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yobe Stars attack 0.73 + Gombe United defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.31

Gombe United attack 0.36 + Yobe Stars defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Yobe Stars scores more
57%
level
29%
Gombe United scores more
14%

Yobe Stars at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Yobe Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yobe Stars vs Gombe United

Yobe Stars beat Gombe United 1-0 in NPFL on January 30, 2019.

The match was played at Bako Kontagora Stadium (Minna).