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Gombe United vs Yobe Stars — NPFL 2019

Gombe United
Gombe United
FT
1 – 0
Yobe Stars
Yobe Stars
3/31/2019NPFLNPFL · Round 13Pantami Township Stadium (Gombe)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Gombe United59%
×Draw27%
Yobe Stars14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gombe United
1.42
Yobe Stars
0.54

Gombe United creates 163% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 11 away

creates per match

Gombe United
1.28
Yobe Stars
0.27

allows per match

Gombe United
0.81
Yobe Stars
1.55

finishing

Gombe United+0.00on par
Yobe Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gombe United ↓

Yobe Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Gombe United or draw
86%
Gombe United or Yobe Stars
73%
Draw or Yobe Stars
41%

Winning margin

Gombe United wins by 2+
30%
Yobe Stars wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Gombe United 1+ goals
76%
Gombe United 2+ goals
41%
Gombe United 3+ goals
17%
Yobe Stars 1+ goals
42%
Yobe Stars 2+ goals
10%
Yobe Stars 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Gombe United (draw refunded)
81%
Yobe Stars (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gombe United at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.81 · 58 matches

Yobe Stars away — creates 0.27, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gombe United attack 1.28 + Yobe Stars defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.42

Yobe Stars attack 0.27 + Gombe United defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Gombe United scores more
59%
level
27%
Yobe Stars scores more
14%

Gombe United at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Gombe United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gombe United vs Yobe Stars

Gombe United beat Yobe Stars 1-0 in NPFL on March 31, 2019.

The match was played at Pantami Township Stadium (Gombe).