Yobe Stars 0–1 Akwa United: Result & Stats | NPFL

Yobe Stars

FT

0 – 1

Akwa United

2/6/2019

NPFL · Round 7August 27 Stadium (Damaturu)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Yobe Stars43%

×Draw34%

Akwa United23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yobe StarsExpected goals in this matchAkwa United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

0.65

Yobe Stars

1.00

Akwa United

0.65

Yobe Stars creates 54% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 111 away

0.73

creates per match

0.66

0.64

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Yobe Stars

0.73

Akwa United

0.66

allows per match

Yobe Stars

0.64

Akwa United

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yobe Stars+0.00on par

Akwa United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under77
Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yobe Stars ↓

Akwa United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–019%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

81%19%1.5

49%51%2.5

23%77%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Yobe Stars or draw

77%

Yobe Stars or Akwa United

66%

Draw or Akwa United

57%

Winning margin

Yobe Stars wins by 2+

17%

Akwa United wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Yobe Stars 1+ goals

63%

Yobe Stars 2+ goals

26%

Yobe Stars 3+ goals

8%

Akwa United 1+ goals

48%

Akwa United 2+ goals

14%

Akwa United 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Yobe Stars (draw refunded)

65%

Akwa United (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yobe Stars at home — creates 0.73, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

Akwa United away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.28 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yobe Stars attack 0.73 + Akwa United defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.00

Akwa United attack 0.66 + Yobe Stars defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Yobe Stars scores more

43%

level

34%

Akwa United scores more

23%

Yobe Stars at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Yobe Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff