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Akwa United vs Yobe Stars — NPFL 2019

Akwa United
Akwa United
FT
1 – 0
Yobe Stars
Yobe Stars
5/12/2019NPFLNPFL · Round 19Akwa Ibom Stadium (Uyo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Akwa United66%
×Draw24%
Yobe Stars10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akwa United
1.58
Yobe Stars
0.44

Akwa United creates 259% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 11 away

creates per match

Akwa United
1.62
Yobe Stars
0.27

allows per match

Akwa United
0.61
Yobe Stars
1.55

finishing

Akwa United+0.00on par
Yobe Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akwa United ↓

Yobe Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Akwa United or draw
90%
Akwa United or Yobe Stars
76%
Draw or Yobe Stars
34%

Winning margin

Akwa United wins by 2+
37%
Yobe Stars wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Akwa United 1+ goals
79%
Akwa United 2+ goals
47%
Akwa United 3+ goals
21%
Yobe Stars 1+ goals
36%
Yobe Stars 2+ goals
7%
Yobe Stars 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Akwa United (draw refunded)
87%
Yobe Stars (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akwa United at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.61 · 111 matches

Yobe Stars away — creates 0.27, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akwa United attack 1.62 + Yobe Stars defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.58

Yobe Stars attack 0.27 + Akwa United defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Akwa United scores more
66%
level
24%
Yobe Stars scores more
10%

Akwa United at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Akwa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Akwa United vs Yobe Stars

Akwa United beat Yobe Stars 1-0 in NPFL on May 12, 2019.

The match was played at Akwa Ibom Stadium (Uyo).