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Yobe Stars vs Abia Warriors — NPFL 2019

Yobe Stars
Yobe Stars
FT
1 – 3
Abia Warriors
Abia Warriors
3/20/2019NPFLNPFL · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Yobe Stars46%
×Draw31%
Abia Warriors22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yobe Stars
1.14
Abia Warriors
0.69

Yobe Stars creates 65% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 128 away

creates per match

Yobe Stars
0.73
Abia Warriors
0.73

allows per match

Yobe Stars
0.64
Abia Warriors
1.55

finishing

Yobe Stars+0.00on par
Abia Warriors+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yobe Stars ↓

Abia Warriors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Yobe Stars or draw
78%
Yobe Stars or Abia Warriors
69%
Draw or Abia Warriors
54%

Winning margin

Yobe Stars wins by 2+
20%
Abia Warriors wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Yobe Stars 1+ goals
68%
Yobe Stars 2+ goals
32%
Yobe Stars 3+ goals
11%
Abia Warriors 1+ goals
50%
Abia Warriors 2+ goals
15%
Abia Warriors 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Yobe Stars (draw refunded)
68%
Abia Warriors (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yobe Stars at home — creates 0.73, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

Abia Warriors away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.55 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yobe Stars attack 0.73 + Abia Warriors defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.14

Abia Warriors attack 0.73 + Yobe Stars defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Yobe Stars scores more
46%
level
31%
Abia Warriors scores more
22%

Yobe Stars at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Yobe Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Yobe Stars 1–3 Abia Warriors

Abia Warriors beat Yobe Stars 3-1 in NPFL on March 20, 2019.