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Abia Warriors vs Yobe Stars — NPFL 2019

Abia Warriors
Abia Warriors
FT
1 – 0
Yobe Stars
Yobe Stars
4/14/2019NPFLNPFL · Round 15Umuahia Township Stadium (Umuahia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Abia Warriors65%
×Draw25%
Yobe Stars10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Abia Warriors
1.52
Yobe Stars
0.43

Abia Warriors creates 253% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 11 away

creates per match

Abia Warriors
1.50
Yobe Stars
0.27

allows per match

Abia Warriors
0.60
Yobe Stars
1.55

finishing

Abia Warriors+0.00on par
Yobe Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abia Warriors ↓

Yobe Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Abia Warriors or draw
90%
Abia Warriors or Yobe Stars
75%
Draw or Yobe Stars
35%

Winning margin

Abia Warriors wins by 2+
35%
Yobe Stars wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Abia Warriors 1+ goals
78%
Abia Warriors 2+ goals
45%
Abia Warriors 3+ goals
20%
Yobe Stars 1+ goals
35%
Yobe Stars 2+ goals
7%
Yobe Stars 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Abia Warriors (draw refunded)
86%
Yobe Stars (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abia Warriors at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.60 · 127 matches

Yobe Stars away — creates 0.27, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abia Warriors attack 1.50 + Yobe Stars defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.52

Yobe Stars attack 0.27 + Abia Warriors defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Abia Warriors scores more
65%
level
25%
Yobe Stars scores more
10%

Abia Warriors at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Abia Warriors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Abia Warriors vs Yobe Stars

Abia Warriors beat Yobe Stars 1-0 in NPFL on April 14, 2019.

The match was played at Umuahia Township Stadium (Umuahia).