Øygarden 0–3 Vard: Result & Stats

Øygarden

FT

0 – 3

Vard

6/5/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Ågotnes Kunstgressbane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Øygarden58%

×Draw18%

Vard24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ØygardenExpected goals in this matchVard

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.75

1.77

Øygarden

2.75

Vard

1.77

Øygarden creates 55% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

2.50

creates per match

1.78

1.75

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Øygarden

2.50

Vard

1.78

allows per match

Øygarden

1.75

Vard

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Øygarden+0.00on par

Vard+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Øygarden ↓

Vard →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Øygarden or draw

76%

Øygarden or Vard

82%

Draw or Vard

42%

Winning margin

Øygarden wins by 2+

38%

Vard wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Øygarden 1+ goals

93%

Øygarden 2+ goals

75%

Øygarden 3+ goals

51%

Vard 1+ goals

83%

Vard 2+ goals

53%

Vard 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Øygarden (draw refunded)

70%

Vard (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Øygarden at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Vard away — creates 1.78, concedes 3.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Øygarden attack 2.50 + Vard defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.75

Vard attack 1.78 + Øygarden defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Øygarden scores more

58%

level

18%

Vard scores more

24%

Øygarden at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Øygarden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff