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Vard vs Øygarden — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Vard
Vard
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Øygarden
Øygarden
9/18/20212. Division - Group 22. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 18Haugesund Sparebank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Vard53%
×Draw23%
Øygarden24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vard
1.83
Øygarden
1.17

Vard creates 56% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 13 away

creates per match

Vard
1.57
Øygarden
1.38

allows per match

Vard
0.96
Øygarden
2.08

finishing

Vard+0.00on par
Øygarden+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vard ↓

Øygarden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Vard or draw
76%
Vard or Øygarden
77%
Draw or Øygarden
47%

Winning margin

Vard wins by 2+
30%
Øygarden wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Vard 1+ goals
84%
Vard 2+ goals
54%
Vard 3+ goals
28%
Øygarden 1+ goals
69%
Øygarden 2+ goals
33%
Øygarden 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Vard (draw refunded)
68%
Øygarden (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vard at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.96 · 23 matches

Øygarden away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vard attack 1.57 + Øygarden defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.83

Øygarden attack 1.38 + Vard defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Vard scores more
53%
level
23%
Øygarden scores more
24%

Vard at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Vard will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Division - Group 2: Vard 2–0 Øygarden

Vard beat Øygarden 2-0 in 2. Division - Group 2 on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena in Haugesund.