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Øygarden vs Sogndal — 1. Division 2018

Øygarden
Øygarden
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sogndal
Sogndal
9/25/20201. Division1. Division · Round 17Ågotnes Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Øygarden37%
×Draw26%
Sogndal37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Øygarden
1.32
Sogndal
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 130 away

creates per match

Øygarden
1.13
Sogndal
1.27

allows per match

Øygarden
1.40
Sogndal
1.52

finishing

Øygarden+0.00on par
Sogndal+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Øygarden ↓

Sogndal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Øygarden or draw
63%
Øygarden or Sogndal
74%
Draw or Sogndal
63%

Winning margin

Øygarden wins by 2+
16%
Sogndal wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Øygarden 1+ goals
73%
Øygarden 2+ goals
38%
Øygarden 3+ goals
15%
Sogndal 1+ goals
74%
Sogndal 2+ goals
38%
Sogndal 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Øygarden (draw refunded)
50%
Sogndal (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Øygarden at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Sogndal away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.52 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Øygarden attack 1.13 + Sogndal defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.32

Sogndal attack 1.27 + Øygarden defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Øygarden scores more
37%
level
26%
Sogndal scores more
37%

Øygarden at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Øygarden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Øygarden 0–1 Sogndal

Sogndal beat Øygarden 1-0 in 1. Division on September 25, 2020.

The match was played at Ågotnes Stadion in Ågotnes.