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Sogndal vs Øygarden — 1. Division 2018

Sogndal
Sogndal
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Øygarden
Øygarden
8/27/20201. Division1. Division · Round 12Fosshaugane Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sogndal62%
×Draw19%
Øygarden19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sogndal
2.48
Øygarden
1.33

Sogndal creates 86% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 15 away

creates per match

Sogndal
1.90
Øygarden
1.33

allows per match

Sogndal
1.34
Øygarden
3.07

finishing

Sogndal+0.00on par
Øygarden+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sogndal ↓

Øygarden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Sogndal or draw
81%
Sogndal or Øygarden
81%
Draw or Øygarden
38%

Winning margin

Sogndal wins by 2+
41%
Øygarden wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sogndal 1+ goals
92%
Sogndal 2+ goals
70%
Sogndal 3+ goals
44%
Øygarden 1+ goals
74%
Øygarden 2+ goals
38%
Øygarden 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sogndal (draw refunded)
76%
Øygarden (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sogndal at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.34 · 128 matches

Øygarden away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sogndal attack 1.90 + Øygarden defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.48

Øygarden attack 1.33 + Sogndal defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Sogndal scores more
62%
level
19%
Øygarden scores more
19%

Sogndal at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Sogndal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sogndal vs Øygarden

Sogndal beat Øygarden 2-0 in 1. Division on August 27, 2020.

The match was played at Fosshaugane Campus in Sogndal.