Øygarden 2–1 Sandnes ULF: Result & Stats

Øygarden

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sandnes ULF

11/21/2020

1. Division · Round 28Vestlandshallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Øygarden43%

×Draw25%

Sandnes ULF32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ØygardenExpected goals in this matchSandnes ULF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.30

Øygarden

1.54

Sandnes ULF

1.30

Øygarden creates 18% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 112 away

1.13

creates per match

1.21

1.40

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Øygarden

1.13

Sandnes ULF

1.21

allows per match

Øygarden

1.40

Sandnes ULF

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Øygarden+0.00on par

Sandnes ULF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Øygarden ↓

Sandnes ULF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Øygarden or draw

68%

Øygarden or Sandnes ULF

75%

Draw or Sandnes ULF

57%

Winning margin

Øygarden wins by 2+

21%

Sandnes ULF wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Øygarden 1+ goals

79%

Øygarden 2+ goals

45%

Øygarden 3+ goals

20%

Sandnes ULF 1+ goals

73%

Sandnes ULF 2+ goals

37%

Sandnes ULF 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Øygarden (draw refunded)

57%

Sandnes ULF (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Øygarden at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Sandnes ULF away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.95 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Øygarden attack 1.13 + Sandnes ULF defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.54

Sandnes ULF attack 1.21 + Øygarden defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Øygarden scores more

43%

level

25%

Sandnes ULF scores more

32%

Øygarden at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Øygarden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff