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Sandnes ULF vs Øygarden — 1. Division 2018

Sandnes ULF
Sandnes ULF
FT
4 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Øygarden
Øygarden
7/3/20201. Division1. Division · Round 1Øster Hus Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sandnes ULF57%
×Draw20%
Øygarden23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandnes ULF
2.36
Øygarden
1.46

Sandnes ULF creates 62% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 15 away

creates per match

Sandnes ULF
1.66
Øygarden
1.33

allows per match

Sandnes ULF
1.58
Øygarden
3.07

finishing

Sandnes ULF+0.00on par
Øygarden+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandnes ULF ↓

Øygarden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Sandnes ULF or draw
77%
Sandnes ULF or Øygarden
80%
Draw or Øygarden
43%

Winning margin

Sandnes ULF wins by 2+
36%
Øygarden wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sandnes ULF 1+ goals
90%
Sandnes ULF 2+ goals
68%
Sandnes ULF 3+ goals
41%
Øygarden 1+ goals
77%
Øygarden 2+ goals
43%
Øygarden 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Sandnes ULF (draw refunded)
71%
Øygarden (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandnes ULF at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.58 · 112 matches

Øygarden away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandnes ULF attack 1.66 + Øygarden defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.36

Øygarden attack 1.33 + Sandnes ULF defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sandnes ULF scores more
57%
level
20%
Øygarden scores more
23%

Sandnes ULF at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sandnes ULF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Sandnes ULF 4–3 Øygarden

Sandnes ULF beat Øygarden 4-3 in 1. Division on July 3, 2020.

The match was played at Øster Hus Arena in Sandnes.