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Øygarden vs jerv — 1. Division 2018

Øygarden
Øygarden
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
jerv
jerv
8/24/20201. Division1. Division · Round 11Ågotnes Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Øygarden44%
×Draw24%
jerv31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Øygarden
1.61
jerv
1.32

Øygarden creates 22% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 75 away

creates per match

Øygarden
1.13
jerv
1.24

allows per match

Øygarden
1.40
jerv
2.09

finishing

Øygarden+0.00on par
jerv+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Øygarden ↓

jerv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Øygarden or draw
69%
Øygarden or jerv
76%
Draw or jerv
56%

Winning margin

Øygarden wins by 2+
23%
jerv wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Øygarden 1+ goals
80%
Øygarden 2+ goals
48%
Øygarden 3+ goals
22%
jerv 1+ goals
73%
jerv 2+ goals
38%
jerv 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Øygarden (draw refunded)
58%
jerv (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Øygarden at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

jerv away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.09 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Øygarden attack 1.13 + jerv defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.61

jerv attack 1.24 + Øygarden defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Øygarden scores more
44%
level
24%
jerv scores more
31%

Øygarden at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Øygarden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Øygarden vs jerv

Øygarden beat jerv 1-0 in 1. Division on August 24, 2020.

The match was played at Ågotnes Stadion in Ågotnes.