jerv 4–2 Øygarden: Result & Stats | 1. Division

jerv

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Øygarden

10/24/2020

1. Division · Round 22J.J. Ugland Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

jerv57%

×Draw20%

Øygarden23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

jervExpected goals in this matchØygarden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.33

jerv

2.21

Øygarden

1.33

jerv creates 66% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 15 away

1.36

creates per match

1.33

allows per match

3.07

creates per match

jerv

1.36

Øygarden

1.33

allows per match

jerv

1.33

Øygarden

3.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

jerv+0.00on par

Øygarden+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

jerv ↓

Øygarden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

jerv or draw

77%

jerv or Øygarden

80%

Draw or Øygarden

43%

Winning margin

jerv wins by 2+

35%

Øygarden wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

jerv 1+ goals

89%

jerv 2+ goals

65%

jerv 3+ goals

38%

Øygarden 1+ goals

74%

Øygarden 2+ goals

38%

Øygarden 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

jerv (draw refunded)

72%

Øygarden (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

jerv at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.33 · 75 matches

Øygarden away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

jerv attack 1.36 + Øygarden defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.21

Øygarden attack 1.33 + jerv defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

jerv scores more

57%

level

20%

Øygarden scores more

23%

jerv at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "jerv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff