Øygarden 1–3 Ham-Kam: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Øygarden

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Ham-Kam

A. Heggebø 58'

M. Ebiye 69', 37'

J. Enkerud 20'

12/13/2020

1. Division · Round 30Vestlandshallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Øygarden33%

×Draw26%

Ham-Kam41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ØygardenExpected goals in this matchHam-Kam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.41

Øygarden

1.23

Ham-Kam

1.41

Ham-Kam creates 15% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 60 away

1.13

creates per match

1.42

1.40

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Øygarden

1.13

Ham-Kam

1.42

allows per match

Øygarden

1.40

Ham-Kam

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Øygarden+0.00on par

Ham-Kam+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Øygarden ↓

Ham-Kam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Øygarden or draw

59%

Øygarden or Ham-Kam

74%

Draw or Ham-Kam

67%

Winning margin

Øygarden wins by 2+

14%

Ham-Kam wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Øygarden 1+ goals

71%

Øygarden 2+ goals

35%

Øygarden 3+ goals

13%

Ham-Kam 1+ goals

76%

Ham-Kam 2+ goals

41%

Ham-Kam 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Øygarden (draw refunded)

44%

Ham-Kam (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Øygarden at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Ham-Kam away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Øygarden attack 1.13 + Ham-Kam defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Ham-Kam attack 1.42 + Øygarden defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Øygarden scores more

33%

level

26%

Ham-Kam scores more

41%

Ham-Kam at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ham-Kam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

20'

27'

37'

46'

50'

58'

69'

72'

J. Kvernstuen← M. Ebiye

80'

C. Ezeh← S. Antonijevic

80'

M. Fofana← B. Pedersen

87'

K. Spence← E. Moldenes

88'

A. Ikedi← K. Stava

90+1'

E. Krohnstad← K. Eriksen

90+1'

S. Pedersen← E. Sildnes

90+1'

S. Strand← J. Enkerud

90+1'

D. Arzani← J. Matland

Øygarden

Ham-Kam

1

Jendal

20

▼

5

6

13

21

10

▼

Sildnes

9

⚽

▼

Enkerud

15

Skjærvik

14

▼

Eriksen

40

⚽2

▼

Ebiye

1

Thomas

5

Haugsdal

15

▼

Antonijev

14

▼

3

29

7

18

▼

Pedersen

19

⚽

Heggebø

16

▼

Moldenes

10

▼

Stava

Manager: M. Mjelde

46'▲K. Haga←▼T. Økland

80'▲C. Ezeh←▼S. Antonijevic

80'▲M. Fofana←▼B. Pedersen

87'▲K. Spence←▼E. Moldenes

88'▲A. Ikedi←▼K. Stava

Øygarden substitutes

22Haga12Ezeh28Fofana11Spence4Ikedi30Berntzen

Manager: K. Rekdal

72'▲J. Kvernstuen←▼M. Ebiye

90+1'▲E. Krohnstad←▼K. Eriksen

90+1'▲S. Pedersen←▼E. Sildnes

90+1'▲S. Strand←▼J. Enkerud

90+1'▲D. Arzani←▼J. Matland

Ham-Kam substitutes

23Kvernstuen4Krohnstad18Pedersen8Strand25Arzani31Mbaye

Match Recap: Øygarden vs Ham-Kam

Ham-Kam beat Øygarden 3-1 in 1. Division on December 13, 2020.

Goals: J. Enkerud (20'), M. Ebiye (37', 69'), A. Heggebø (58').

The match was played at Vestlandshallen in Bergen.

Øygarden vs Ham-Kam — 1. Division 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Øygarden vs Ham-Kam