Ham-Kam 3–4 Øygarden: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Ham-Kam

FT

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Øygarden

J. Enkerud 79'

T. Svendsen 48'

M. Pedersen 37'

A. Fantoft 90+1'

A. Heggebø 78', 1'

A. van der Spa 22'

7/13/2020

1. Division · Round 3Briskeby Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ham-Kam62%

×Draw18%

Øygarden20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ham-KamExpected goals in this matchØygarden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

1.36

Ham-Kam

2.50

Øygarden

1.36

Ham-Kam creates 84% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 15 away

1.92

creates per match

1.33

1.40

allows per match

3.07

creates per match

Ham-Kam

1.92

Øygarden

1.33

allows per match

Ham-Kam

1.40

Øygarden

3.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ham-Kam+0.00on par

Øygarden+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ham-Kam ↓

Øygarden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Ham-Kam or draw

80%

Ham-Kam or Øygarden

82%

Draw or Øygarden

38%

Winning margin

Ham-Kam wins by 2+

40%

Øygarden wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Ham-Kam 1+ goals

92%

Ham-Kam 2+ goals

71%

Ham-Kam 3+ goals

45%

Øygarden 1+ goals

74%

Øygarden 2+ goals

39%

Øygarden 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Ham-Kam (draw refunded)

76%

Øygarden (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ham-Kam at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.40 · 60 matches

Øygarden away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ham-Kam attack 1.92 + Øygarden defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.50

Øygarden attack 1.33 + Ham-Kam defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Ham-Kam scores more

62%

level

18%

Øygarden scores more

20%

Ham-Kam at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Ham-Kam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

22'

33'

37'

46'

F. Rimestad← T. Økland

48'

T. Svendsen

52'

A. Daghim← A. Dieserud

63'

A. Fantoft← P. Michael

63'

S. Marthinussen← M. Abelsen

68'

J. Enkerud← E. Sildnes

75'

S. Antonijevic← E. Larsen

76'

P. Nergaard

78'

A. Heggebø

79'

J. Enkerud

89'

W. Mikalsen← T. Svendsen

90+2'

E. Moldenes← A. Heggebø

90+1'

A. Fantoft

Ham-Kam

Øygarden

1

Thomas

5

Haugsdal

14

▼

Økland

2

▼

Larsen

27

⚽

Spa

7

Nergaard

10

▼

Abelsen

12

Ezeh

9

Andersen

17

▼

Michael

19

⚽2

▼

1

20

5

13

14

10

▼

Sildnes

22

Onsrud

16

▼

Dieserud

21

⚽

▼

Svendsen

8

Solbakken

11

⚽

Pedersen

Manager: E. Olsen

52'▲A. Daghim←▼A. Dieserud

68'▲J. Enkerud←▼E. Sildnes

89'▲W. Mikalsen←▼T. Svendsen

Ham-Kam substitutes

7Daghim9Enkerud3Mikalsen6Johnsen15Skjærvik17Strande30Fagereng

Manager: B. Lazaro

46'▲F. Rimestad←▼T. Økland

63'▲A. Fantoft←▼P. Michael

63'▲S. Marthinussen←▼M. Abelsen

75'▲S. Antonijevic←▼E. Larsen

90+2'▲E. Moldenes←▼A. Heggebø

Øygarden substitutes

22Rimestad6Fantoft8Marthinussen15Antonijevic16Moldenes20Udeh30Berntzen

Match Recap: Ham-Kam vs Øygarden

Øygarden beat Ham-Kam 4-3 in 1. Division on July 13, 2020.

Goals: A. Heggebø (1', 78'), A. van der Spa (22'), M. Pedersen (37'), T. Svendsen (48'), J. Enkerud (79'), A. Fantoft (90+1').

The match was played at Briskeby Arena in Hamar.

Ham-Kam vs Øygarden — 1. Division 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ham-Kam vs Øygarden