Øygarden 0–0 Egersund: Result & Stats

Øygarden

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Egersund

8/28/2021

2. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 14Ågotnes Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Øygarden52%

×Draw23%

Egersund25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ØygardenExpected goals in this matchEgersund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.18

Øygarden

1.79

Egersund

1.18

Øygarden creates 52% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 22 away

1.77

creates per match

1.82

0.54

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Øygarden

1.77

Egersund

1.82

allows per match

Øygarden

0.54

Egersund

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Øygarden+0.00on par

Egersund+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Øygarden ↓

Egersund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Øygarden or draw

75%

Øygarden or Egersund

77%

Draw or Egersund

48%

Winning margin

Øygarden wins by 2+

29%

Egersund wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Øygarden 1+ goals

83%

Øygarden 2+ goals

53%

Øygarden 3+ goals

26%

Egersund 1+ goals

69%

Egersund 2+ goals

33%

Egersund 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Øygarden (draw refunded)

67%

Egersund (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Øygarden at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.54 · 13 matches

Egersund away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Øygarden attack 1.77 + Egersund defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.79

Egersund attack 1.82 + Øygarden defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Øygarden scores more

52%

level

23%

Egersund scores more

25%

Øygarden at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Øygarden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff