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Egersund vs Øygarden — 2. Division - Group 1 2019

Egersund
Egersund
CANC
11:30
Øygarden
Øygarden
7/16/20222. Division - Group 12. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 15Egersund Idrettsparken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Egersund76%
×Draw15%
Øygarden10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Egersund
2.71
Øygarden
0.86

Egersund creates 215% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 3 away

creates per match

Egersund
2.76
Øygarden
0.67

allows per match

Egersund
1.05
Øygarden
2.67

finishing

Egersund+0.00on par
Øygarden+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Egersund ↓

Øygarden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Egersund or draw
90%
Egersund or Øygarden
85%
Draw or Øygarden
24%

Winning margin

Egersund wins by 2+
55%
Øygarden wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Egersund 1+ goals
93%
Egersund 2+ goals
75%
Egersund 3+ goals
50%
Øygarden 1+ goals
58%
Øygarden 2+ goals
21%
Øygarden 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Egersund (draw refunded)
89%
Øygarden (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Egersund at home — creates 2.76, concedes 1.05 · 38 matches

Øygarden away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Egersund attack 2.76 + Øygarden defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.71

Øygarden attack 0.67 + Egersund defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Egersund scores more
76%
level
15%
Øygarden scores more
10%

Egersund at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Egersund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Egersund host Øygarden

July 16, 2022: Egersund take on Øygarden in 2. Division - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Egersund host Øygarden at Egersund Idrettsparken.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.