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Yeşilyurt Belediyespor vs Karaköprü Belediyespor — League #553 2026

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
FT
6 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Karaköprü Belediyespor
Karaköprü Belediyespor
4/5/2026League #553League #553 · Group 2 - 28Malatya Yeşiltepe Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor54%
×Draw24%
Karaköprü Belediyespor22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
1.71
Karaköprü Belediyespor
1.01

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor creates 69% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 15 away

creates per match

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
1.75
Karaköprü Belediyespor
0.93

allows per match

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
1.08
Karaköprü Belediyespor
1.67

finishing

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor+0.00on par
Karaköprü Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor ↓

Karaköprü Belediyespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor or draw
78%
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor or Karaköprü Belediyespor
76%
Draw or Karaköprü Belediyespor
46%

Winning margin

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor wins by 2+
29%
Karaköprü Belediyespor wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor 1+ goals
82%
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor 2+ goals
51%
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor 3+ goals
24%
Karaköprü Belediyespor 1+ goals
64%
Karaköprü Belediyespor 2+ goals
27%
Karaköprü Belediyespor 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor (draw refunded)
71%
Karaköprü Belediyespor (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

Karaköprü Belediyespor away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor attack 1.75 + Karaköprü Belediyespor defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.71

Karaköprü Belediyespor attack 0.93 + Yeşilyurt Belediyespor defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor scores more
54%
level
24%
Karaköprü Belediyespor scores more
22%

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Yeşilyurt Belediyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yeşilyurt Belediyespor vs Karaköprü Belediyespor

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor beat Karaköprü Belediyespor 6-2 in League #553 on April 5, 2026.

The match was played at Malatya Yeşiltepe Stadı in Malatya.