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Karaköprü Belediyespor vs Yeşilyurt Belediyespor — League #553 2026

Karaköprü Belediyespor
Karaköprü Belediyespor
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
F. Sari 85'
H. Peksen 35'
Y. Atsiz 19'
12/12/2025League #553League #553 · Group 2 - 13Faruk Çelik Spor Kompleksi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Karaköprü Belediyespor40%
×Draw26%
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karaköprü Belediyespor
1.39
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 12 away

creates per match

Karaköprü Belediyespor
1.60
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
1.42

allows per match

Karaköprü Belediyespor
1.13
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
1.17

finishing

Karaköprü Belediyespor+0.00on par
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karaköprü Belediyespor ↓

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Karaköprü Belediyespor or draw
66%
Karaköprü Belediyespor or Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
74%
Draw or Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
60%

Winning margin

Karaköprü Belediyespor wins by 2+
19%
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Karaköprü Belediyespor 1+ goals
75%
Karaköprü Belediyespor 2+ goals
40%
Karaköprü Belediyespor 3+ goals
16%
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor 1+ goals
72%
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor 2+ goals
36%
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Karaköprü Belediyespor (draw refunded)
54%
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karaköprü Belediyespor at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karaköprü Belediyespor attack 1.60 + Yeşilyurt Belediyespor defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.39

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor attack 1.42 + Karaköprü Belediyespor defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Karaköprü Belediyespor scores more
40%
level
26%
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor scores more
34%

Karaköprü Belediyespor at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Karaköprü Belediyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
Y. Atsiz
35'
H. Peksen↳ F. Sari
85'
F. Sari↳ M. Peker

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karaköprü Belediyespor vs Yeşilyurt Belediyespor

Karaköprü Belediyespor beat Yeşilyurt Belediyespor 2-1 in League #553 on December 12, 2025.

Goals: Y. Atsiz (19'), H. Peksen (35'), F. Sari (85').

The match was played at Faruk Çelik Spor Kompleksi in Şanlıurfa.