Yeşilyurt Belediyespor 2–2 Kırşehir Belediyespor

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Kırşehir Belediyespor

M. Cakir 90+9'

M. Ozturk 45+2'

H. Turkyilmaz 81'

M. Akoz 49'

9/28/2025

League #553 · Group 2 - 4Malatya Yeşiltepe Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor50%

×Draw24%

Kırşehir Belediyespor26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yeşilyurt BelediyesporExpected goals in this matchKırşehir Belediyespor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.14

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor

1.68

Kırşehir Belediyespor

1.14

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor creates 47% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

1.75

creates per match

1.20

1.08

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor

1.75

Kırşehir Belediyespor

1.20

allows per match

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor

1.08

Kırşehir Belediyespor

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor+0.00on par

Kırşehir Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor ↓

Kırşehir Belediyespor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor or draw

74%

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor or Kırşehir Belediyespor

76%

Draw or Kırşehir Belediyespor

50%

Winning margin

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor wins by 2+

27%

Kırşehir Belediyespor wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor 1+ goals

81%

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor 2+ goals

50%

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor 3+ goals

24%

Kırşehir Belediyespor 1+ goals

68%

Kırşehir Belediyespor 2+ goals

32%

Kırşehir Belediyespor 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor (draw refunded)

66%

Kırşehir Belediyespor (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

Kırşehir Belediyespor away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor attack 1.75 + Kırşehir Belediyespor defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.68

Kırşehir Belediyespor attack 1.20 + Yeşilyurt Belediyespor defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor scores more

50%

level

24%

Kırşehir Belediyespor scores more

26%

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Yeşilyurt Belediyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+2'

M. Ozturk

49'

M. Akoz

81'

H. Turkyilmaz

90+9'

M. Cakir

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff