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Kırşehir Belediyespor vs Yeşilyurt Belediyespor — League #553 2026

Kırşehir Belediyespor
Kırşehir Belediyespor
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
U. Bayraktar 45+6'
1/31/2026League #553League #553 · Group 2 - 19Kırşehir Ahi Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kırşehir Belediyespor50%
×Draw27%
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kırşehir Belediyespor
1.42
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
0.88

Kırşehir Belediyespor creates 61% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 12 away

creates per match

Kırşehir Belediyespor
1.67
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
1.42

allows per match

Kırşehir Belediyespor
0.33
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
1.17

finishing

Kırşehir Belediyespor+0.00on par
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kırşehir Belediyespor ↓

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kırşehir Belediyespor or draw
77%
Kırşehir Belediyespor or Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
73%
Draw or Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
50%

Winning margin

Kırşehir Belediyespor wins by 2+
24%
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kırşehir Belediyespor 1+ goals
76%
Kırşehir Belediyespor 2+ goals
41%
Kırşehir Belediyespor 3+ goals
17%
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor 1+ goals
59%
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor 2+ goals
22%
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kırşehir Belediyespor (draw refunded)
68%
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kırşehir Belediyespor at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kırşehir Belediyespor attack 1.67 + Yeşilyurt Belediyespor defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.42

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor attack 1.42 + Kırşehir Belediyespor defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kırşehir Belediyespor scores more
50%
level
27%
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor scores more
23%

Kırşehir Belediyespor at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kırşehir Belediyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+6'
U. Bayraktar

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #553: Kırşehir Belediyespor 1–0 Yeşilyurt Belediyespor

Kırşehir Belediyespor beat Yeşilyurt Belediyespor 1-0 in League #553 on January 31, 2026.

Goals: U. Bayraktar (45+6').

The match was played at Kırşehir Ahi Stadyumu in Kırşehir.