Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Yerevan vs Shirak — Premier League 2019

Yerevan
Yerevan
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Shirak
Shirak
10/25/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Vanadzor Football Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Yerevan23%
×Draw22%
Shirak55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yerevan
1.17
Shirak
1.95

Shirak creates 67% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 91 away

creates per match

Yerevan
0.45
Shirak
0.90

allows per match

Yerevan
3.00
Shirak
1.88

finishing

Yerevan+0.00on par
Shirak+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yerevan ↓

Shirak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Yerevan or draw
45%
Yerevan or Shirak
78%
Draw or Shirak
77%

Winning margin

Yerevan wins by 2+
9%
Shirak wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Yerevan 1+ goals
69%
Yerevan 2+ goals
33%
Yerevan 3+ goals
11%
Shirak 1+ goals
86%
Shirak 2+ goals
58%
Shirak 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Yerevan (draw refunded)
29%
Shirak (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yerevan at home — creates 0.45, concedes 3.00 · 11 matches

Shirak away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.88 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yerevan attack 0.45 + Shirak defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.17

Shirak attack 0.90 + Yerevan defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Yerevan scores more
23%
level
22%
Shirak scores more
55%

Shirak at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Shirak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Yerevan 1–4 Shirak

Shirak beat Yerevan 4-1 in Premier League on October 25, 2019.

The match was played at Vanadzor Football Academy in Vanadzor.