Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Shirak vs Yerevan — Premier League 2019

Shirak
Shirak
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Yerevan
Yerevan
8/16/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Gyumri City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Shirak67%
×Draw19%
Yerevan14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shirak
2.27
Yerevan
0.94

Shirak creates 141% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 11 away

creates per match

Shirak
0.82
Yerevan
0.55

allows per match

Shirak
1.32
Yerevan
3.73

finishing

Shirak+0.00on par
Yerevan+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shirak ↓

Yerevan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Shirak or draw
86%
Shirak or Yerevan
81%
Draw or Yerevan
33%

Winning margin

Shirak wins by 2+
44%
Yerevan wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Shirak 1+ goals
90%
Shirak 2+ goals
66%
Shirak 3+ goals
39%
Yerevan 1+ goals
61%
Yerevan 2+ goals
24%
Yerevan 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Shirak (draw refunded)
82%
Yerevan (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shirak at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.32 · 90 matches

Yerevan away — creates 0.55, concedes 3.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shirak attack 0.82 + Yerevan defence 3.73 → ÷2 → 2.27

Yerevan attack 0.55 + Shirak defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Shirak scores more
67%
level
19%
Yerevan scores more
14%

Shirak at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Shirak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Shirak 2–1 Yerevan

Shirak beat Yerevan 2-1 in Premier League on August 16, 2019.

The match was played at Gyumri City Stadium in Gyumri.