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Yerevan vs Pyunik Yerevan — Premier League 2019

Yerevan
Yerevan
FT
0 – 3
Pyunik Yerevan
Pyunik Yerevan
6/16/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Relegation Round - 3Fut Akademia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Yerevan8%
×Draw16%
Pyunik Yerevan76%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yerevan
0.65
Pyunik Yerevan
2.38

Pyunik Yerevan creates 266% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 107 away

creates per match

Yerevan
0.45
Pyunik Yerevan
1.75

allows per match

Yerevan
3.00
Pyunik Yerevan
0.85

finishing

Yerevan+0.00on par
Pyunik Yerevan+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yerevan ↓

Pyunik Yerevan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–112%
0–214%
0–311%
0–47%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (14%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Yerevan or draw
24%
Yerevan or Pyunik Yerevan
84%
Draw or Pyunik Yerevan
92%

Winning margin

Yerevan wins by 2+
2%
Pyunik Yerevan wins by 2+
52%

Team goals

Yerevan 1+ goals
48%
Yerevan 2+ goals
14%
Yerevan 3+ goals
3%
Pyunik Yerevan 1+ goals
91%
Pyunik Yerevan 2+ goals
68%
Pyunik Yerevan 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Yerevan (draw refunded)
10%
Pyunik Yerevan (draw refunded)
90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yerevan at home — creates 0.45, concedes 3.00 · 11 matches

Pyunik Yerevan away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.85 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yerevan attack 0.45 + Pyunik Yerevan defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.65

Pyunik Yerevan attack 1.75 + Yerevan defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Yerevan scores more
8%
level
16%
Pyunik Yerevan scores more
76%

Pyunik Yerevan at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Pyunik Yerevan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yerevan vs Pyunik Yerevan

Pyunik Yerevan beat Yerevan 3-0 in Premier League on June 16, 2020.

The match was played at Fut Akademia in Ejmiatsin.