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Pyunik Yerevan vs Yerevan — Premier League 2019

Pyunik Yerevan
Pyunik Yerevan
FT
3 – 0
Yerevan
Yerevan
5/31/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Relegation Round - 1Yerevan Football Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Pyunik Yerevan78%
×Draw14%
Yerevan8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pyunik Yerevan
2.75
Yerevan
0.76

Pyunik Yerevan creates 262% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 11 away

creates per match

Pyunik Yerevan
1.77
Yerevan
0.55

allows per match

Pyunik Yerevan
0.96
Yerevan
3.73

finishing

Pyunik Yerevan+0.00on par
Yerevan+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyunik Yerevan ↓

Yerevan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Pyunik Yerevan or draw
92%
Pyunik Yerevan or Yerevan
86%
Draw or Yerevan
22%

Winning margin

Pyunik Yerevan wins by 2+
58%
Yerevan wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Pyunik Yerevan 1+ goals
93%
Pyunik Yerevan 2+ goals
75%
Pyunik Yerevan 3+ goals
51%
Yerevan 1+ goals
53%
Yerevan 2+ goals
18%
Yerevan 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Pyunik Yerevan (draw refunded)
91%
Yerevan (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyunik Yerevan at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.96 · 104 matches

Yerevan away — creates 0.55, concedes 3.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyunik Yerevan attack 1.77 + Yerevan defence 3.73 → ÷2 → 2.75

Yerevan attack 0.55 + Pyunik Yerevan defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Pyunik Yerevan scores more
78%
level
14%
Yerevan scores more
8%

Pyunik Yerevan at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Pyunik Yerevan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Pyunik Yerevan 3–0 Yerevan

Pyunik Yerevan beat Yerevan 3-0 in Premier League on May 31, 2020.

The match was played at Yerevan Football Academy in Yerevan.