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Yerevan vs Ararat-Armenia — Premier League 2019

Yerevan
Yerevan
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Ararat-Armenia
Ararat-Armenia
8/25/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Yerevan Football Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Yerevan8%
×Draw16%
Ararat-Armenia75%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yerevan
0.63
Ararat-Armenia
2.33

Ararat-Armenia creates 270% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 107 away

creates per match

Yerevan
0.45
Ararat-Armenia
1.67

allows per match

Yerevan
3.00
Ararat-Armenia
0.80

finishing

Yerevan+0.00on par
Ararat-Armenia+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yerevan ↓

Ararat-Armenia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–112%
0–214%
0–311%
0–46%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (14%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Yerevan or draw
25%
Yerevan or Ararat-Armenia
84%
Draw or Ararat-Armenia
92%

Winning margin

Yerevan wins by 2+
2%
Ararat-Armenia wins by 2+
52%

Team goals

Yerevan 1+ goals
47%
Yerevan 2+ goals
13%
Yerevan 3+ goals
3%
Ararat-Armenia 1+ goals
90%
Ararat-Armenia 2+ goals
67%
Ararat-Armenia 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Yerevan (draw refunded)
10%
Ararat-Armenia (draw refunded)
90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yerevan at home — creates 0.45, concedes 3.00 · 11 matches

Ararat-Armenia away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.80 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yerevan attack 0.45 + Ararat-Armenia defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.63

Ararat-Armenia attack 1.67 + Yerevan defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Yerevan scores more
8%
level
16%
Ararat-Armenia scores more
75%

Ararat-Armenia at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Ararat-Armenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yerevan vs Ararat-Armenia

Ararat-Armenia beat Yerevan 2-1 in Premier League on August 25, 2019.

The match was played at Yerevan Football Academy in Yerevan.