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Ararat-Armenia vs Yerevan — Premier League 2019

Ararat-Armenia
Ararat-Armenia
FT
7 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Yerevan
Yerevan
11/10/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Yerevan Football Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Ararat-Armenia82%
×Draw12%
Yerevan6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ararat-Armenia
2.90
Yerevan
0.69

Ararat-Armenia creates 320% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 11 away

creates per match

Ararat-Armenia
2.06
Yerevan
0.55

allows per match

Ararat-Armenia
0.82
Yerevan
3.73

finishing

Ararat-Armenia+0.00on par
Yerevan+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ararat-Armenia ↓

Yerevan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Ararat-Armenia or draw
94%
Ararat-Armenia or Yerevan
88%
Draw or Yerevan
18%

Winning margin

Ararat-Armenia wins by 2+
62%
Yerevan wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Ararat-Armenia 1+ goals
94%
Ararat-Armenia 2+ goals
78%
Ararat-Armenia 3+ goals
54%
Yerevan 1+ goals
50%
Yerevan 2+ goals
15%
Yerevan 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ararat-Armenia (draw refunded)
93%
Yerevan (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ararat-Armenia at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.82 · 108 matches

Yerevan away — creates 0.55, concedes 3.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ararat-Armenia attack 2.06 + Yerevan defence 3.73 → ÷2 → 2.90

Yerevan attack 0.55 + Ararat-Armenia defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Ararat-Armenia scores more
82%
level
12%
Yerevan scores more
6%

Ararat-Armenia at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Ararat-Armenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ararat-Armenia vs Yerevan

Ararat-Armenia beat Yerevan 7-2 in Premier League on November 10, 2019.

The match was played at Yerevan Football Academy in Yerevan.