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Yerevan vs Ararat — Premier League 2019

Yerevan
Yerevan
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Ararat
Ararat
10/4/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Vanadzor Football Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Yerevan18%
×Draw21%
Ararat61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yerevan
1.04
Ararat
2.07

Ararat creates 99% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 107 away

creates per match

Yerevan
0.45
Ararat
1.14

allows per match

Yerevan
3.00
Ararat
1.64

finishing

Yerevan+0.00on par
Ararat+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yerevan ↓

Ararat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Yerevan or draw
39%
Yerevan or Ararat
79%
Draw or Ararat
82%

Winning margin

Yerevan wins by 2+
7%
Ararat wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Yerevan 1+ goals
65%
Yerevan 2+ goals
28%
Yerevan 3+ goals
9%
Ararat 1+ goals
87%
Ararat 2+ goals
61%
Ararat 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Yerevan (draw refunded)
23%
Ararat (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yerevan at home — creates 0.45, concedes 3.00 · 11 matches

Ararat away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.64 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yerevan attack 0.45 + Ararat defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.04

Ararat attack 1.14 + Yerevan defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Yerevan scores more
18%
level
21%
Ararat scores more
61%

Ararat at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Ararat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yerevan vs Ararat

Ararat beat Yerevan 3-1 in Premier League on October 4, 2019.

The match was played at Vanadzor Football Academy in Vanadzor.