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Ararat vs Yerevan — Premier League 2019

Ararat
Ararat
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Yerevan
Yerevan
8/2/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Vazgen Sargsyan anvan Hanrapetakan Marzadasht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Ararat71%
×Draw17%
Yerevan12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ararat
2.41
Yerevan
0.89

Ararat creates 171% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 11 away

creates per match

Ararat
1.09
Yerevan
0.55

allows per match

Ararat
1.23
Yerevan
3.73

finishing

Ararat+0.00on par
Yerevan+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ararat ↓

Yerevan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Ararat or draw
88%
Ararat or Yerevan
83%
Draw or Yerevan
29%

Winning margin

Ararat wins by 2+
48%
Yerevan wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Ararat 1+ goals
91%
Ararat 2+ goals
69%
Ararat 3+ goals
43%
Yerevan 1+ goals
59%
Yerevan 2+ goals
22%
Yerevan 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ararat (draw refunded)
85%
Yerevan (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ararat at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.23 · 107 matches

Yerevan away — creates 0.55, concedes 3.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ararat attack 1.09 + Yerevan defence 3.73 → ÷2 → 2.41

Yerevan attack 0.55 + Ararat defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Ararat scores more
71%
level
17%
Yerevan scores more
12%

Ararat at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Ararat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ararat vs Yerevan

Ararat beat Yerevan 1-0 in Premier League on August 2, 2019.

The match was played at Vazgen Sargsyan anvan Hanrapetakan Marzadasht in Yerevan.